Fifteen Minutes of Germ Warfare Quiz

Answer: Anthrax

It wouldn't take fifteen minutes of warfare to destroy the world, with the nuclear capabilities of so many countries. Biological warfare is trickier, but just as scary a prospect. Some recently-encountered, usually regional diseases (Ebola, for instance), have such high mortality rates that planned bioterrorism could have lethal consequences for the human race. If the anthrax sent had been something much more contagious and presented on a larger scale, the effects could have been unforgettable.

Around since antiquity, the concept of germ warfare is to use disease-carrying pathogens to kill or hurt an enemy. Ancient Greek sagas include examples of poison-tipped spears and arrows; later, the mechanisms became more sophisticated. Some historians blame the Mongols (particularly the Golden Horde) for the spread of the bubonic plague into Europe, when they catapulted diseased bodies into the Ukrainian city of Kaffa. Some settlers of the United States probably gave Native Americans blankets covered in smallpox laden on them.

By the twentieth century, germ warfare peaked. Imperial Japan notably produced biological weapons for use in the Sino-Japanese War; later, some of the same Japanese technology was utilized by Americans during the Korean War. Germ warfare saw no intentions of being eradicated, even after treaties banning it were signed toward the end of the century: one week after the September 11 attacks, two US senators and dozens of media outlets were mailed letters containing anthrax, a lethal disease. After the incident killed five people, a huge investigation into the attacks turned scrutiny on Dr. Bruce Ivins, who committed suicide in 2008 before being prosecuted.

Answer: Shoemaker-Levy 9, a comet, hit Jupiter.

Scientists call the collision of a Solar System body like a comet or asteroid an "impact event." Impact events have occurred frequently throughout the Earth's history, mostly minor. The last major collision probably occurred in 700 BC in Kaali, Estonia, producing several craters, the largest of which is 110 meters in diameter. The energy released was probably comparable to the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Earlier in the Earth's history, major impact events include one at the K-T extinction 65 million years ago; that asteroid made a crater about 180 kilometers in diameter. Yet even that event pales in comparison to the experience of Jupiter in 1994. The scars on the planet's surface were more visible than the Great Red Spot and were about 6000 kilometers in diameter, approximately the radius of the Earth.

Shoemaker-Levy 9 isn't the only comet to collide with an astronomical body, but it did awaken scientists to the possibility that such a catastrophic collision would spell the end for life as we know it. On June 30, 1908, a huge explosion caused by a meteoroid or a comet occurred in Siberia. The so-called Tunguska incident had about 1,000 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb and represents the largest impact event on Earth in modern history. Had the event happened over a metropolitan area as large as New York City, it could have wiped out the entire population.

Answer: Gray goo

Both Drexler and von Neumann were presaged by Karel Capek, a Czech playwright who in 1921 premiered a dystopian drama about robots taking over the world, "R.U.R." Notable for actually coining the world "robot," "R.U.R" gained fame, as the idea of robots outcompeting humans was a terrifying prospect.

The idea of robot domination became an international intellectual debate. Drexler's 1986 book "Engines of Creation" coined the term gray goo for the domination of robots of the planet. Unfortunately, his ideas were taken out of context, as scientists rose in indignation against the concept. No scientific evidence for ecophagic (environment-eating) robots exists, and in 2004, the Royal Society, prompted by Prince Charles, published a report essentially dismissing the idea as impossible. Nowadays, the possibility of robots taking over is probably limited to science fiction.

Answer: Absorption of large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

Volcanic eruptions can be responsible for drastic climate change. Perhaps the most studied supervolcanic eruption occurred around 70,000 years ago, at Lake Toba in Sumatra, Indonesia. The eruption caused a so-called "volcanic winter" that might have reduced the human population to only 1,000 breeding pairs. Scientists point to the Toba eruption as a natural disaster that could create a huge bottleneck in the human population and kill thousands. More recent volcanic eruptions, less potent than the prehistoric event, include one at Mount Tambora in 1815 that caused a "Year Without a Summer" in 1816.

Volcanic eruptions are dangerous because the lava is only part of the devastation to a region's ecology. Chlorine produced from the eruption can escape into the atmosphere and terrorize the ozone layer, which protects us from ultraviolet radiation. The gases that escape can contribute to acid rain, sulfuric acid formed when sulfur trioxide reacts with water in the atmosphere. Even though volcano gas can blot out the Sun and cause global cooling, it also results in a massive release of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere, which contributes to the greenhouse effect.

Answer: Large-scale particle accelerator

The LHC (or Large Hadron Collider) was built by CERN in a tunnel beneath Geneva, Switzerland, with the purpose of extending scientific research into particle physics. In particular, physicists were trying to discover the hypothetical Higgs Boson, a so-far undiscovered "god" particle without spin that gives objects mass. By colliding particles together at speeds never-before attempted, the LHC was expected to shed light upon questions about our fundamental understanding of physics.

Fearful of the outcome of the experiment, though, many protesters accused the project of deliberately risking the entire planet's safety. They feared the creation of microscopic black holes, or destructive unknown particles called "strangelets" that would destroy all matter. CERN's safety reviews, in conjunction with a study by the American Physical Society, verified that the operation was safe. However, the entire business provoked a question. As our scientific knowledge gets more sophisticated, could an experiment run out of control cause an unexpected apocalypse?

Answer: Snowball Earth

Amidst all the controversy about global warming, it should be noted that far more drastic climate change has occurred in the Earth's past. One of the most famous theorized glaciations, Snowball Earth, occurred right before the Cambrian Explosion of species on the planet. Originally proposed as a reason for glacial deposits in tropical areas, the concept suggests that, at one point in Earth's history, the oceans froze and much of the planet's surface was covered in ice. There is sophisticated geological and chemical evidence for the idea; for example, in 2010, a team of Harvard geologists found direct geological evidence that glaciation occurred at a tropical latitude. Unfortunately, most such data could be caused by factors other than glaciation, so the argument over whether or not Snowball Earth occurred is hotly contested.

Could dramatic increase in Earth's temperatures be an ecological disaster? Absolutely. The shrinkage of the polar ice caps and glaciers, a phenomenon that has been reported since the nineteenth century, has led to increasing ocean levels. A dramatic increase in sea level would ultimately result in the flooding of some low-lying areas on shorelines. In addition, the impact on other organisms would be drastic. The fragile environment of polar animals and tropical fish in particular would be devastated by any global warming, whether it is natural or human-caused.

Answer: They can survive in the vacuum and may become more deadly as a result of their exposure.

When it comes to pandemics, nothing is scarier than a disease that's literally out of this world, and new scientific findings have revealed than an "alien plague" might just be more realistic than "The Andromeda Strain." In 2008, a team of astronauts suspended a group of salmonella bacteria in no-gravity conditions for just 83 hours. When the bacteria were returned to Earth, they were found to be three times as deadly as a control group matured on the planet's surface. Researchers believe that living in outer space actually caused the bacteria to form a so-called "biofilm," which is resistant to most antibiotics. Considering that astronauts' immune systems are weakened when they are sent into space, this development could be problematic for long-term space missions, and especially if the new strain of bacteria is accidentally released into the general public.

The other scary part is that bacteria can survive in the vacuum of space. For 553 days, some non-pathogenic organisms were suspended on the outside of the International Space Station, and exposed to anaerobic conditions, extreme temperatures, and radiation. Amazingly, a population of the bacteria did survive the grueling conditions. An alien plague organism living on a meteorite that hits Earth's surface, therefore, could be worse than any sort of germ warfare humans can concoct. Although unlikely, such a catastrophe and a particularly virulent pathogenic strain could kill millions.

Answer: They are extremely rare, occurring just a few times every million years.

Gamma ray bursts (GRBs) are the brightest known electromagnetic events. Formed from the supernova of a star (the explosion after which it becomes a neutron star or a black hole) or from the merging of two collapsed binary stars, GRBs typically last just a few seconds. However, those seconds are enough to create an incomprehensible amount of energy. In less than five seconds, a gamma ray burst produces more energy than the Sun will in ten billion years. Vela satellites first observed GRBs in the 1960s, believing the extremely bright flashes to originate within the Milky Way.

Make no mistake, though: if a gamma ray burst occurred anywhere inside our galaxy, it would probably mean the end of human existence. Luckily, the events are extremely rare, occurring only a few times per galaxy per million years. A GRB more than 100 light-years away would appear as bright as the Sun. A "close" burst would completely destroy the ozone layer by creating innumerable free radical molecules. If we weren't killed by the immense release of energy during the burst, the immediate onset of skin cancer and the annihilation of oceanic food chain would probably do the trick.

Answer: Reversal of Earth's magnetic poles

Earth's magnetic poles, indeed, have been known to flip-flop during the planet's history. The last time it happened, the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal, occurred almost 800,000 years ago, which doesn't beckon well, because it's a longer period of "dormancy" than has ever before occurred. Most of the time, the reversals take around 300,000 years. Geologists "read" the polarity by observing patterns of seafloor spreading on the ocean floor. By observing the age of the rock formed, they can determine which way the poles were oriented.

So what? The Earth's magnetic field has been diminishing for the past two millennia, indicating that a reversal is probably on its way: usually, the switch is accompanied by a period of a very weak field. The planet's magnetic field is very important- it deflects cosmic rays and deep-space particles. In addition, many animals use the magnetic field for navigation, especially in terms of migration. If birds started flying north instead of south for the winter, then mass extinctions could occur, indirectly affecting the human population.

Answer: Enrico Fermi

Obviously, any hypothesis with aliens is going to be treated with skepticism from most of the scientific community, but many respected astronomers have favored Fermi's interpretation: if the universe is so big and varied, then why haven't we made contact yet? There are several explanations for the paradox, and it seems rather unlikely that SETI projects will succeed for centuries.

Much of the information from this quiz came from "Discover" magazine's October 2000 issue, "Twenty Ways the World Could End." In addition to the options already mentioned, the magazine points out that biotechnical or environmental disasters, mass insanity, and giant solar flares could be apocalyptic nightmares. The comical twentieth entry, "Someone wakes up and realizes it was all a dream," reveals that even pessimists have a sense of humor.